Turkey is likely to face a second round of presidential elections

Erdogan is gaining less than 50%. Kilicdaroglu lags behind him by 4% after processing all ballots, TRT TV channel reports. The final results will be announced by the CEC of Turkey, as well as confirmation of the second round of presidential elections.

Recep Erdogan is gaining less than 50% of the vote. State media report that according to the results of processing all ballots, the incumbent president of the country has 49.35%, the single opposition candidate Kemal Kilicdaroglu has 45%. There will probably be a second round of presidential elections in Turkey.

At the same time, the CEC of Turkey officially announced only the processing data of 91% of ballots. But even there, Erdogan did not get half of the votes to win in the first round. At night, thousands of Erdogan supporters gathered at his election headquarters in Ankara. A rally-concert was held there, people waved flags and burned flares. The current president said that there are no final results yet, but if the voter has decided that there will be a second round, then so be it. According to the tradition of Erdogan's election rallies, his meeting with voters ended with a song.

Opposition candidate Kilicdaroglu, at his meeting with supporters on May 14 in the evening, said that "we will definitely win the elections in the second round," and thanked the youth for their active participation in the vote. Already during the processing of the election results, he noted that Erdogan's representatives were blocking the counting of votes in some polling stations and there were places where recounts were required up to ten times.

Presidential candidate Sinan Ohan, who won more than 5% of the votes, said that the counting of votes abroad is carried out with violations, and asked the election commission to "immediately take the necessary measures and ensure a quick vote count." It is the counting of votes abroad that will determine whether there will be a second round.

The Anatolian Agency, citing CEC data, reports that more than half of Turkish citizens living abroad voted for Erdogan. At the same time, Turks living in Russia voted for Kilicdaroglu — there are more than 54% of them in the embassy. Erdogan was supported by 38%.

Business FM discussed the results of yesterday's vote with the editor-in-chief of Moskovsky Komsomolets in Turkey, the author of the telegram channel "Agenda of Turkey" Yashar Niyazbayev:

— Judging by Erdogan's statement at night, when he came out in front of voters and said that if there is a second round, then let there be a second round, we don't mind, so most likely, yes, the second round. Because no matter how many votes were counted from the very beginning of the calculations, Erdogan's votes did not increase, but, on the contrary, only decreased.

— About the violations reported by supporters of Kilicdaroglu. How serious are they?

— They are delaying the calculations, they also consider it a prerequisite for falsification, because they believe, according to them, wherever Kilicdaroglu won, representatives of the ruling party demanded a recount of votes and therefore they delayed the official results. Why is this done? According to the opposition, so that those people who are waiting there, observers, the voters themselves, who can play a role in the security of the vote count, they can just get tired and go home and it's not clear what will happen there.

— How calm was the night, is there a chance that conflicts may break out?

— Conflicts may break out if it really suddenly turns out that the data that is in the hands of the opposition and the data that the Central Election Commission has expressed will differ. Please note that two different agencies transmit information about the elections and both have the same numbers. And this is already an indicator that nothing should change.

— When are the final data expected approximately?

— We'll probably find out about by lunch time, because there's only 9% left to count.

— Sinan Ohan stated that the counting of votes abroad is carried out with violations, apparently, it is also about delaying the counting?

— Yes, this is what also plays a role, because abroad about 5% should turn out, these 5%, of course, play a huge role, so everything is ambiguous, we don't know.

Experts note that this is the most difficult election for Erdogan in 20 years in power. Previously, he always won by a serious margin. Many of his opponents ended up either in prison or in exile as a result. But Kilicdaroglu is considered one of the strongest candidates for all these years. At the same time, it is known that the position of Erdogan and Kilicdaroglu regarding Russia is similar. He has already stated that he is not going to worsen relations with Moscow, but at the same time he will take into account the position of Western countries.

The turnout for the elections in Turkey exceeded 88%. This is a record figure. People were standing in queues at polling stations, it was felt that the whole country wanted to show its will, says an independent journalist from Turkey, Abdurrahman Kamburoglou. Business FM discussed with him the forecast for the second round.

— There will be a very difficult struggle again, and who will be able to entice voters, supporters of the third candidate, they will win. There is a possibility that the opinions of voters on the part of the authorities may go to the opposition in the second round, because there are a certain number of voters who are not supporters of a particular party and they can change their minds, the same person can vote for Erdogan, but in parliament he can vote for a completely different person. Now, as we can see, the opposition has broken exactly that threshold, the pressure exerted on them by the government and Erdogan himself, they have shown that they are also strong and have gained a great rating. And this can become a turning point, lure the percentages of voters who rush from one side to the other. But the opposite may also happen, they may say that Erdogan is in the lead anyway, what should we do now, let's leave everything as it is in the second round, too.

— There is an opinion that the second round is a struggle not of ratings, but of anti—ratings. Based on this position, do you think Erdogan's chances of winning are great?

— There was a lot of hope for those regions where there was an earthquake. In these regions, the opposition expected them to win, because people were offended, people were dissatisfied with the rescue work of the authorities, but, as we can see, it was in these regions that the ruling party and Erdogan gained a majority.

After the publication of the interim results of the presidential election, the Turkish stock market fell by 6%, the lira rate dropped by almost 7% in the morning, but quickly regained losses. Initially, investors hoped for Kilicdaroglu's victory in the first round.

Nadezhda Grosheva, brand director of the ecosystem in the Kalinka real estate market, tells about the reaction of local residents to the course and results of the vote. The company sells real estate, including in Turkey:

Nadezhda Grosheva

brand director of the ecosystem in the Kalinka real estate market

"I am in the small resort town of Fethiye, it is located on the coast between the Mediterranean and the Aegean Seas. It's a small town, so it's very quiet and peaceful here and it's not noticeable that elections are taking place in the country. Nevertheless, when I talked to the locals, they were really looking forward to the elections, including a change in the economic course. In private conversations, they say that they expect Erdogan to leave his post, because, including in Turkey, there is crazy inflation — 80-100% per year. It is very difficult to buy a car, because the duties are high, the car costs twice as much as in Russia. This is also becoming a problem for foreigners, because the opposition party has repeatedly stated that it will limit the ability of foreigners to buy real estate, obtain citizenship, residence permit, and so on. In the same city of Fethiye, where I am, there are quite a lot of UK residents, they traditionally bought houses here to spend their retirement, and even for them the price level is now becoming unpleasant. There was talk that there could be unrest, while we see that everything is very quiet, calm, but the economic consequences are already noticeable, the stock market has fallen, investors are reacting. By the way, many expected that the lira would fall after the elections, because there was talk that the exchange rate was being held back, as prices were being held back before the elections to create a sense of stability."

On Sunday, May 14, parliamentary elections were held in Turkey. According to their results, the "Republican Alliance" led by Erdogan's Justice and Development Party is gaining 49.3% and gaining more than half of the seats in parliament, TRT reports with reference to data from the Central Election Commission of Turkey.