The secondary market of elite residential real estate in Moscow

2024 year

By the end of December 2024, 695 lots totaling 125.3 thousand square meters were on display in the secondary market of high-budget real estate in Moscow.

Compared to September 2024, the number of lots on display decreased by -3%. During the year, the number of lots on sale decreased by -1%. The dynamics of supply volume in the quarter Compared to last year, it was -8%.

The average area of the lot on display in December 2024 was 180.3 square meters, which is -7% less than in the same period of 2023. As for the distribution of supply in the secondary luxury housing market, the main share was concentrated in the range of up to 200 square meters, namely 72%, which is 5 percentage points higher than in the same period in 2023.

Table. Summary indicators of the exhibited offer in the secondary market of luxury housing in Moscow

The largest share of the supply was concentrated in the area range of 100-125 square meters (17%), which is +3 percentage points higher than a year ago (14%). Lots with an area of 75-100 square meters are in second place in terms of exposure, with a share of 13%, which is 2 percentage points higher than in the same period of 2023. Next are the ranges of 125-150 square meters. square meters and 150-75 square meters (their share in the total distribution was 12% each).

Chart. Comparison of the distribution of luxury apartments/apartments on display by area at the end of December 2023-2024, %

The average period of exposure of a lot in the secondary luxury market of Moscow at the end of December 2024 was 3 years. Against the background of positive demand dynamics and the emergence of a more liquid supply in 2024, the distribution of the current supply over the exposure period shifted towards a shorter sales cycle (up to 2 years). As in the previous year, most of the lots in the offer are new, with an exhibition period of up to 1 year. The share of such lots was 41% (+8 percentage points by December 2023). The share of lots that have been on sale for 1 to 3 years was 32% (-4 percentage points by December 2023), and the share of lots that have been on sale for 4 years or more was 27% (-4 percentage points by December 2023).

The secondary market of luxury real estate has the largest share of supply in sq.m. m is concentrated in the Central Administrative District, which accounted for 75% at the end of December 2024. The distribution of elite supply in the secondary housing market by district is as follows: the leader in terms of supply per square meter is traditionally the Khamovniki district, whose share at the end of December 2024 was 25% (-1 percentage point by September 2024). In second place, as in the previous quarter, is Presnensky district with a share of 19% (-3 percentage points by September 2024). Next is the Ramenka district, which accounted for 16% (+3 percentage points by September 2024). In total, the top 3 districts include 60% of the total supply. Tverskoy, Arbat, Zamoskvorechye and Yakimanka districts also account for a significant share of the supply, with supply shares of 5-8% each.

Price situation

According to the results of December 2024, in the secondary luxury real estate market in Moscow, the weighted average offer price was 1,348 thousand rubles / sq. m (unchanged for the quarter and +5% for the year). The weighted average supply price continues to be influenced by the macroeconomic situation and the current situation in related segments of the housing market, as well as changes in supply conditions amid the leaching of more liquid lots.

Table. Summary price indicators of supply in the secondary market of luxury housing in Moscow

The share of lots that are displayed in foreign currency at the end of December 2024 was 19%, which is equivalent to the indicator at the end of September 2024 and -5 percentage points less than the indicator at the end of December 2023. In absolute terms, the number of lots in foreign currency decreased by -9% compared to September 2024 and by -21% compared to December 2023. Most of the lots in Moscow's secondary luxury housing market (391 units) are new and went on sale between December 2023 and December 2024 (56% share in the total volume). For 93% of the lots that were sold at the end of December 2024, the display currency has not changed. The change in currency affected only 7% of the lots in the offer, of which 5% of the apartments/apartments were converted into rubles, and 2% of the lots were converted into dollars and euros. Of the total pool of objects (695 units), the owners of 24% of the lots in the offer, which were on display at the end of December 2024 on the secondary luxury real estate market in Moscow, have not changed the sale prices.

Chart. The dynamics of supply (units) and the weighted average unit price (thousand rubles/sq. m.) in the secondary market of Moscow at the end of December 2024

For lots that are displayed in rubles, the average price change was +6% per year. For lots priced in a foreign currency, the average price change was +8%, including due to an increase in the exchange rate at the end of December 2024 compared to the end of December 2023. By the end of December 2024, the average budget of a lot for sale on the secondary luxury real estate market in Moscow amounted to 259 million rubles, which is +3 percentage points higher than at the end of September 2024 and +4 percentage points higher than at the end of December 2023. The largest share is accounted for by lots that are offered in the budget of over 400 million rubles. Over the year, the share in this segment increased by +1 percentage point and reached 16%. In addition, there is an increase in the share of lots in the supply in the budget range of 100-125 million rubles: the share increased from 9% to 12% per year.

Chart. Comparison of the distribution of exhibited apartments/apartments by lot value at the end of December 2023 and at the end of December 2024, %

Yakimanka district is the leader among Moscow's districts in the secondary luxury real estate market at the weighted average offer price at the end of December 2024. The weighted average cost of secondary residential real estate in this area of Moscow was 1,851 thousand rubles / sq. m, which is +10% higher compared to the end of September 2024 and +11% higher than in December 2023. The Khamovniki district is in second place (incl. Ostozhenka): 1,845 thousand rubles / sq. m (+8% by September 2024 and +15% by December 2023). Arbat district closes the top three: 1,548 thousand rubles / sq. m. m (+18% by September 2024 and +26% by December 2023) due to the leaching of the most liquid supply in the location.

Chart. Rating of districts according to the weighted average unit cost of supply in the secondary market, thousand rubles per sq.m. m at the end of December 2024*

Demand

In 2024, the Federal Register of Moscow recorded 146.2 thousand transfers of rights on the secondary market, which is 16% less than in 2023 (175.0 thousand transactions). The negative dynamics in terms of demand in the secondary market (year-on-year) is mainly related to the increase in the key rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation: in 2023 it increased from 7.5% to 16%, and in 2024 – from 16% to 21%. Secondly, in the primary construction marketbanks offer various discount programs, including installments, which affects the distribution of demand between the primary and secondary markets.

Chart. Quarterly dynamics of demand in the secondary housing market in Moscow as a whole, thousand units, 1q. 2022 – 4q. 2024

According to the Kalinka ecosystem, demand in the secondary market of high-budget real estate in 2024 showed a decrease of -10% compared to 2023. The average area of a sought-after lot in the secondary market of high-budget real estate in Moscow in 2024 was 149.3 square meters, which is +6% more than in 2023 (140.5 square meters).

In the demand structure, 35% of the lots from the total demand in 2024 were on display for less than 1 year, 23% of the lots were on sale for about 1 year, and 42% of the lots sold for 2 years or more. The average exposure period for purchased lots in 2024 was 2.7 years, which is 0.1 years higher than the average exposure period for demanded lots in 2023.

Chart. Distribution of realized lots by exposure period in %, 2024

In 2024, the largest volume of demand in the quarter Demand for secondary luxury housing was recorded in the Khamovniki district, which accounted for 23% (+5 percentage points compared to 2023). In second place is Presnensky district, which accounted for 15% of the demand (-5 percentage points compared to 2023). Ramenka district is in third place, with a 10% share in demand (-3 percentage points compared to 2023).

Chart. The rating of the TOP 10 districts in terms of demand in the quarter m in the secondary luxury housing market in 2024, % of the total demand for the period

Chart. Comparison of the distribution of demand in the secondary luxury housing market in 2023-2024 by area, %

The average value of the purchased lot in 2024 was 141.6 million rubles, which is +14% higher than in 2023 (124.0 million rubles). For apartments, the figure was 150.6 million rubles (+17% per year), for apartments – 97.0 million rubles (-4% per year).

The distribution of demand according to the purchase budget for 2024 was carried out as follows: the largest number of transactions fell in the range of 50-85 million rubles with a share of 24% (-15 percentage points dynamics compared to last year). In second place is the range of 25-50 million rubles with an indicator of 15% (-3 percentage points compared to last year). Next is the range of 85-100 million rubles with a demand share of 11% (+6 percentage points compared to last year).

Chart. Comparison of the distribution of demand in the luxury market in 2023 and 2024 by budget, %

Table. Distribution of luxury offers on the secondary market by area and cost at the end of December 2024, %