Moscow Luxury Real estate market Overview

The elite market of Moscow. Price supply dynamics, Q1 2024*.

• High development activity in 2023-2024: sales of 22 new projects started in 2023, and 6 new projects in Q1 2024.

•There are 107 complexes on sale (+7% by Q1 2023).

• In total, about 15 projects are planned for 2024.

• An increase in the volume of supply by 16% over the year to 479 thousand square meters. m against the background of the active release of new offers.

• Reduction of the quarterly supply growth rate to 2% due to the recovery of demand.

• Stagnation of prices in premium due to the release of new projects and a moderate increase in prices – an increase of 2% over the year.

• Maintaining price growth in the Deluxe class up to 14% per year against the background of the release of new projects in central locations and price increases.

The dollar exchange rate and the increase in the key rate in the Russian Federation.

•The exchange rate difference and the decrease in prices in foreign currency in Q3-4 2023 had a positive impact on demand against the background of significant foreign exchange savings among the target audience of the class and the need to save funds against the background of economic instability.

• Luxury real estate is one of the most reliable assets.

• The trend continues - despite the increase in prices in rubles, at the moment there is a decrease in real estate prices in terms of dollars:

•  in deluxe by 5% per year,
• in premium – by 15% per year

• In the medium term, the volume of supply is expected to remain at the current level, and prices in rubles by segment will also continue to increase, but the growth rate will be within 5% per quarter.

• The share of mortgage transactions is traditionally at a low level – within 10% of the total number of transactions in the elite market, the abolition of preferential mortgages will not affect the elite market.

• An effective sales tool is installments. About 80% of transactions take place using it.

Demand. The elite market. Quarterly dynamics and new records.

• In 2023, the demand indicator will increase compared to 2022: in 2023, 1,568 transactions +74% by 2022.

•Demand recovery since mid-2023 against the background of an increase in the exchange rate and the release of new projects: demand growth in Q4 2023 by 202% compared to Q4 2022.

• The largest increase in the number of transactions in Q4 2023 occurred in deluxe: +29% for the quarter and 3.7 times more than in Q4 2022 -141 transactions - a record sales figure for the quarter in the luxury housing market.

•The total amount of transactions in Q4 2023 is 87 billion rubles, which is a record figure for the volume of transactions per quarter in rubles in the entire history of the elite market in Moscow (+18% compared to the previous record period Q4 2021; +26% by Q3 2023 and 3.5 times more than Q4 2022).

•The beginning of 2024 is a seasonal decline in market activity

•In February-March, the activity of buyers increased.

• Q1 2024: 341 transactions + 67% by Q1 2023 / 40 thousand square meters (+64% by Q1 2023) / 47 billion rubles (+87% by Q1 2023).

• The weighted average transaction price is 1.18 million rubles per sq. m (+14% compared to Q1 2023).

•In addition, a large number of lots were booked in recently launched premium class projects.

• In 2024, the number of transactions is projected to grow to 1.8 thousand units.

 

*For all information about projects, release dates and prices, see our presentation.